" Who bears responsibility for the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine, for the death of thousands of Ukrainians, both civilians and soldiers, and for the impressment of Ukrainian civilians into the military? Who bears responsibility for the destruction of Ukrainian homes and businesses, and for the refugee crisis that is now adding to the one from the Middle East? Who bears responsibility for the deaths of thousands of young men serving in the Russian military, most of whom surely believe, like their Ukrainian counterparts, that they are fighting to protect their nation and their families? Who bears responsibility for the ongoing harm being inflicted on the economies and citizens of Europe and the United States? Who will bear responsibility if disruptions in farming lead to famine in Africa, a continent that depends heavily on the importation of grain from Ukraine and Russia? And finally, who will bear responsibility if the war in Ukraine escalates to a nuclear exchange, and then becomes a full-scale nuclear war?
How one judges the relative responsibilities of Moscow, Washington, and the various European capitals will depend on how one weighs particular historical events, the actions of the individuals involved, and the relative stress one places on proximal and distal causation. Nonetheless, I will venture the judgement that, when all is taken into account, primary responsibility lies with the West, in particular with the United States. I know of no entirely satisfactory way to argue this point; there is no validated methodology for apportioning blame among a range of actors, all of whom have at least some agency, some freedom of choice. But I believe we can gain insight by constructing a counterfactual history, which asks: Where would we be now had the United States acted differently? This is a game of “what if”—and the projections it generates can never be proven or disproven. But this counterfactual sits well with the history of the last 30 years and, to my mind, is both revealing and persuasive.
Had the United States not pushed NATO to the border of Russia; not deployed nuclear-capable missile launch systems in Romania and planned them for Poland and perhaps elsewhere as well; not contributed to the overthrow of the democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014; not abrogated the ABM treaty and then the intermediate-range nuclear missile treaty, and then disregarded Russian attempts to negotiate a bilateral moratorium on deployments; not conducted live-fire exercises with rockets in Estonia to practise striking targets inside Russia; not coordinated a massive 32-nation military training exercise near Russian territory; not intertwined the U.S. military with that of Ukraine; etc. etc. etc.— Had the United States and its NATO allies not done these tings, the war in Ukraine would not have taken place.
Not everything is visible to the Humans of Universe...
The Minsk agreements, actually consisting of two agreements (Minsk I and Minsk II) signed in 2015, aimed to end the war in Ukraine's Donbas region. Here are the key points:
- Security:
- Immediate and complete ceasefire by both sides.
- Withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front lines.
- Monitoring of the ceasefire and withdrawal by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
- Political:
- Dialogue on establishing temporary self-government for certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk within Ukraine, with specific details to be laid out in Ukrainian law.
- Amnesty for combatants.
- Release of prisoners of war.
- Humanitarian:
- Improved humanitarian access to the region.
- Exchange of hostages.
- Resumption of social and economic ties, including restoring pension payments.
- Crucially: Ukraine would regain control of its border with Russia only after local elections were held in Donetsk and Luhansk according to Ukrainian law.
However, disagreements arose over the sequencing of these steps. Ukraine wanted the border returned first, while Russia pushed for elections and autonomy first. This lack of consensus plagued the Minsk agreements and ultimately led to their failure to bring lasting peace.
The peace is all we need because the pain of a soldier can only be felt by the close relatives and friends...
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